Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Tao Ye  Jianliang Nie  Jun Wang  Peijun Shi  Zhu Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):109-117

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.  相似文献   

Seismic behavior of RC structures with absence of floor slab constraints and large mass turbine as a non-conventional TMD: a case study     

R. Ding  M. X. Tao  M. Zhou  J. G. Nie 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(11):3401-3422

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吉林省下三叠统卢家屯组LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年及其地质意义     

聂立军  于宏斌  张建泽  王聪  李栋  李阳 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2015,45(2):453-470

卢家屯组按岩性组合自下而上分为影背山砾岩段、漏斗山杂色岩段、杨树河子黑色岩段,前人采集到的Palaeanodonta-Palaeomutela动物群、Pleuroneia? sp.和叶肢介等生物化石组合指示时代为二叠纪。本次对九台市影背山双顶山卢家屯组建组剖面下、中、上段进行了系统的碎屑锆石U-Pb同位素年代学研究,证实卢家屯组由下至上存在3个最小锆石年龄峰值,分别为(283.4±7.9)、(262.4±3.9)、(255.5±5.8) Ma,确定了卢家屯组的上限为晚二叠世。根据卢家屯组中碎屑锆石存在1 800 Ma和2 500 Ma左右的典型华北板块基底年龄,认为华北板块北缘与其北侧地块群最终闭合时间应为P₃-T₁。  相似文献   

TRMM卫星降水反演数据在珠江流域的适用性研究——以东江和北江为例          下载免费PDF全文

王兆礼  钟睿达  赖成光  陈晓宏  李军  黄泽勤 《水科学进展》2017,28(2):174-182

为评估最新一代TRMM 3B42-V7卫星降水反演数据产品在珠江流域的精度和适用性,选取位于珠江流域下游的东江和北江流域为研究区域,基于地面雨量站点数据评估了该产品的精度和适用性,并结合可变下渗容量（Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC）水文模型进行了水文模拟验证。对比分析结果表明,在网格尺度上,大多数网格日尺度相关系数达到0.60以上,月尺度相关系数达到0.90以上,3B42-V7产品表现出较好的精度,在区域尺度上精度得到了进一步提高;水文模拟验证分两种情景下进行,情景Ⅰ的结果表明,当水文模型由地面雨量站点数据率定时,3B42-V7产品数据的水文模拟效果不佳,个别区间内存在对洪峰流量明显的低估;情景Ⅱ的结果表明,由3B42-V7产品数据重新率定水文模型时径流模拟效果有了较大改善,说明该产品可在一定程度上作为资料缺乏地区的降水数据来源。  相似文献   

2008-2015年北京高速公路道面结冰特征分析     

胡钰玲  康延臻  杨旭  贾晓红  闵晶晶  王式功  尚可政 《冰川冻土》2017,39(4):811-823

道面结冰是北京地区高速公路交通安全的主要危害因素。利用北京地区2008-2015年28个ROSA交通气象站的结冰数据分析了北京地区高速公路道面结冰的基本特征。结果表明：（1）北京市高速公路道面结冰空间差异显著,不同高速公路结冰特征显著不同,同一高速公路不同路段结冰特征也明显不同,这与高速公路各路段局地气候存在差异有关。（2）道面结冰主要发生在北部和东部高速公路所在路段,以小汤山西桥站、顾家庄桥站、六道口桥站和丁各庄桥站道面结冰灾害最为严重。冬季道面结冰月变化显著,11月和3月,结冰次数较少,结冰持续时间短;12月、1月和2月结冰次数多,结冰持续时间长。（3）持续时间越长的结冰过程结冰次数越少。不同持续时间的结冰过程在各时段的结冰次数和累积结冰时长均存在明显差异,两者在各时刻的演变特征基本相同,峰值均出现在22：00,且在00：00之后呈明显减少趋势。（4）大部分站点慢车道比快车道更容易结冰,少部分站点快、慢车道结冰率近似,有的站点甚至快车道结冰率远高于慢车道。快、慢车道水或覆盖物厚度与交通站点所处位置的局地气象条件密切相关。（5）气温、道面温度和大地温度与水或覆盖物的厚度变化呈反相位,即温度越低,水或覆盖物的厚度越大。这可为北京地区道面结冰预报预警方法的开展提供着眼点和依据。  相似文献   

The diagenetic geochemistry and contamination assessment of iron,cadmium, and lead in the sediments from the Shuangtaizi estuary,China     

Baolin Liu  Yongsheng Nie  Xiuhua Gao  Ke Hu  Juan Yang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(4):168

Sediment and pore water samples have been collected from the coastal tidal flat in the Shuangtaizi estuary, China, in order to investigate the geochemical behavior of iron, cadmium, and lead during diagenesis and to assess the degree of contamination. The calculated enrichment factors and geoaccumulation indices for separate elements show that anthropogenic activities have had no significant influence on the distribution of Fe and Pb in the study area, whereas the distribution of Cd has been closely influenced in this way. The high percentage of exchangeable Cd (average of 56.34%) suggests that Cd represents a potential hazard to benthic organisms in the estuary. The calculated diffusive fluxes of metals show that the most mobilized metal is Fe (9.22 mg m^?2 a^?1), followed by Cd (0.54 mg m^?2 a^?1) and Pb (0.42 mg m^?2 a^?1). Low Fe²⁺ contents in surface pore water, alongside high chromium-reducible sulfur contents, and low acid-volatile sulfur, and elemental sulfur contents at 0–25 cm depth in sediments show that Fe²⁺ is formed by the reduction of Fe oxides and is transformed first to a solid phase of iron monosulfides (FeS) and eventually to pyrite (FeS₂). The release of adsorbed Pb due to reductive dissolution of Fe/Mn oxides during early diagenesis could be a source of Pb²⁺ in pore water. From the relatively low total organic carbon contents measured in sediments (0.46–1.28%, with an average of 0.94%) and the vertical variation of Cd²⁺ in pore water, sulfide or Fe/Mn oxides (instead of organic matter) are presumed to exert a significant influence on carrying or releasing Cd by the sediments.  相似文献   

Dye adsorption on electrochemical exfoliated graphene oxide nanosheets: pH influence,kinetics and equilibrium in aqueous solution     

J. Gong  X. Gao  M. Li  Q. Nie  W. Pan  R. Liu 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(2):305-314

Graphene oxide nanosheets were synthesized by electrochemical exfoliation. X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, Raman spectrometry and Fourier transform infrared spectrometry were used to characterize crystal structure, particle size, thickness and function groups of the nanosheets. The nanosheets were examined for adsorption of methyl orange, an anionic dye, in aqueous solution at different pHs and temperatures. The maximum adsorption capacity of methyl orange on graphene oxide nanosheets obtained from the Langmuir isotherm was 138.69 mg/g at pH 2.0, which is larger than that of other carbonaceous adsorbents. The large adsorption affinity of graphene oxide nanosheets to methyl orange might be due to the presence of hydrogen bonding and π–π interaction between methyl orange and graphene oxide nanosheets. Adsorption kinetics followed a pseudo-second-order kinetic model, and the isotherm adsorption results were fitted with Langmuir isotherm model in a monolayer adsorption manner. The thermodynamic studies indicated that the adsorption reaction was a spontaneous physisorption process.  相似文献   

威海近岸人工鱼礁布设对生物资源恢复效果   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

袁小楠  梁振林  吕振波  王颖丽  孙晓红 《海洋学报》2017,39(10):54-64

为了解人工鱼礁投放对区域内海洋生物资源恢复效果,于2013年3月至2014年1月在北黄海近岸人工鱼礁投放区进行调查。结果显示,该海区发现浮游动物53种,其中优势种为浮游桡足类。夏秋季底栖生物幼体成为季节性优势种。游泳动物共发现14种,主要为常见的礁区鱼类。底栖动物共12种,其中棘皮动物海燕为绝对优势种,为近岸养殖生物的主要敌害生物,主要的底栖资源优势种为虾蟹类与软体动物。投礁区的浮游动物与游泳动物物种数明显多于未投礁区,表明人工投礁有助于生物群落的恢复,提高生物多样性,改善区域生态系统。但该海域大型底栖藻类较少,还应进一步对大型底栖藻类增殖以提高海域初级生产。  相似文献   

CICE5.0与BCC_CSM2.0模式的耦合及对北极海冰的模拟评估   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

房永杰  储敏  吴统文  张录军  聂思程 《海洋学报》2017,39(5):33-43

本文将美国Los Alamos国家实验室发展的最新海冰模式CICE5.0引入国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM2.0,替代原有的海冰模式SIS,形成一个新的耦合模式。在此基础上,评估新耦合模式对1985-2009年北极海冰的模拟性能,检验引入CICE5.0后对耦合模式中北极海冰、海洋和大气模拟结果的改进。结果表明,引入CICE5.0后,模式能较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布、季节以及年际变化特征。相比于旧版本耦合模式,新耦合模式模拟的北极多年冰增多、一年冰减少,同时,海冰增厚、海冰流速减慢,模拟效果得到显著改进,对波弗特涡流模拟的改善尤为明显。进一步分析发现,相比于SIS,CICE5.0对北极海冰特别是海冰厚度模拟性能的提升,在耦合进入BCC_CSM2.0后,会触发冰-温的正反馈机制,改进了模式对海平面气压场、表层气温和海表温度的模拟,由此进一步提高了模式对北极海冰的模拟能力。  相似文献   

1958-2016年呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗气温和降水变化特征     

邸择雷  乌云娜  宋彦涛  霍光伟  张凤杰  王晓光  张小红 《中国沙漠》2017,37(5):1006-1015

气候变化是影响草原区植被与环境状况的重要因素。利用呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗1958-2016年的气温和降水数据资料,采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平分析法、M-K检验法和Morlet小波分析等方法,从不同时间序列上,对该地区近59年的气候变化趋势、极端气候以及突变现象进行分析。结果表明：年平均气温以0.354℃/10a的速率上升,上升趋势显著;四季平均气温均呈现增温趋势,其中春季增温趋势最大;1985-1986年发生了由低温到高温的突变;研究区年平均气温存在11 a的强显著周期。研究区年降水量整体以8.68 mm/10a的速率呈下降趋势,变化趋势不显著;降水集中在夏季（6-8月）,占全年降水量的72.9%,7月降水量最大,有效降水日数最多;1961-1962年和1981-1982年降水发生突变;极端降水指标中日最大降水量、连续5 d最大降水量、强降水量、极强降水量、强降水比率、连续无雨日数、零降水量日数均呈现递减趋势,仅降水强度呈递增趋势,变化趋势均不显著;Morlet小波分析表明研究区年降水量存在52 a的强显著周期。新巴尔虎右旗近59 a气候总体呈现干旱化趋势。  相似文献